Monitoring the escalation in the Iran War and who controls the Strait (as they win the war)
The Iran War was initiated by the US and Israel on the 28th of February. The objective of Warescalation.com is simple: To provide a transparent, near real-time data driven view on the conflict. It will help us tell the status of the war, and therefore impact on the market.
We do this by tracking attacks, shipping and economic/market indicators.
Contact us if you have suggestions.
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About, Methodology & SourcesA multi-factor composite index measuring theater intensity. Values > above 1 signal active escalation; while values below -1 indicate significant cooling. The score integrates four pillars: Kinetics (launch acceleration), Maritime Friction (VLCC passing through Hormuz), Energy Risk (spread between Murban and Brent Crude) and Economic Cost of shipping (log changes in BDTI). This hybrid Z-score approach balances physical battlefield tempo with global market stress to provide a timely indicator of escalation or de-escalation. Most recent observation updates intraday as new data arrives (every 30 minutes)
It's been quiet since the cease fire. Mostly. Israel has kept attacking Lebanon while Hormuz remains more or less closed due to blockades of both Iran and US. Israel's attack on Lebanon has caused Iran to attack on the 8th of June while Iran was attacked earlier on a few occassions by the US as well. So the cease-fire... has not removed all tensions. Our eyes remain firmly on Bab El-Mandeb, which we track on this site, as Iran has voiced several times they can closed it if they desire.
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Ship count (of which sanctioned), change vs previous 24-hour window (sanctioned change).
Vessel transit estimates are derived from AIS position snapshots. A vessel is counted as a chokepoint transit when sequential positions are observed on opposite sides of a defined geofence surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Erroneous data is filtered out based on geo data.
Strikes originating from Iran (or its allies) on a daily basis, also when origin is not confirmed. All hits are assumed to be by Iran.
Military Deaths
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Civilian Deaths
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Total Deaths
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Injuries
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Military Deaths
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Civilian Deaths
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Total Deaths
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Injuries
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Value in brackets is the increase from the previous day's report.
Source: Casualty data is aggregated daily from official and semi-official reports, including MoH (Lebanon/Gaza), HRANA/Hengaw (Iran), IDF/Magen David Adom (Israel), and US Pentagon updates. Figures represent a combination of confirmed combatant losses and reported non-combatant fatalities; due to the speed of kinetic events, reporting lags of 24-48 hours are common for remote strike zones. Data can be revised as new information emerges, and may not capture all casualties, especially in contested areas. The charts above show daily reported casualties, which can fluctuate based on reporting cadence and access to affected regions.
The Murban-Brent spread reflects the geopolitical risk of the Gulf. Sharp changes can signal rising tanker risk and geopolitical stress as markets price in potential disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Tracking the daily cost of crude oil shipping via the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index. This primarily tracks Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) which carry heavy crude oil. Therefore good proxy. Also reflects hidden costs such as insurance, fuel and security premia.
Max unique countries/territories targeted per day. A spike here indicates conflict horizontal expansion.